أزمة مياه خطيرة تهدد دول الشرق الأوسط بحلول عام 2040 بسبب تغير المناخ

ستواجه واحدة من كل خمس دول فى العالم نقصا حادا فى المياه الصالحة للشرب بحلول عام 2040، وهذا يعود إلى التغير المناخى الذى يؤثر على أنماط هطول الأمطار وزيادة النمو السكانى الذى يحتاج إلى كميات أكبر من المياه، ووفقا لدراسة أجرتها منظمة بحثية غير ربحية بمعهد الموارد العالمية (WRI)، فإن أكثر البلاد عرضة لمشكلة نقص المياه فى المستقبل القريب هى دول الشرق الأوسط، وتعتبر هى المنطقة الأكثر ضعفا فى مواجه المشكلة، فهناك أربعة عشر بلد عربى ضمن الدول 33 الأكثر عرضة للمعاناة من نقص المياه الموجودة، وليس هذا فقط بل المجموعة تضم تسعة دول تعانى بشدة ومهددة للغاية وهى البحرين والكويت وفلسطين وقطر والإمارات العربية المتحدة وإسرائيل والمملكة العربية السعودية وسلطنة عمان ولبنان.

الدول المعرضة لأزمة المياه

السبب وراء نقص المياه فى منطقة الشرق الأوسط وفقا للدراسة الحديثة هى أنها تعتمد بشكل كبير على المياه الجوفية ومياه البحر المحلاة وهذه النوعية من المياه تنضب سريعا، بينما الدول الأخرى التى يحتمل أن تعانى من نقص فى المياه بعيدا عن الشرق الأوسط هى الولايات المتحدة، والصين، والهند، وهذه الدول تكافح بالفعل مع ندرة المياه والأمر سيزداد خلال عام 2040، وهناك دول مثل أستراليا وإندونيسيا والفلبين ومنغوليا وناميبيا وجنوب أفريقيا وبوتسوانا وبيرو وتشيلى وعدة دول من شمال أفريقيا هى أيضا عرضة لندرة حادة فى المياه بحلول عام 2040 . قال “تشارلز أيسلندا” مدير معهد الموارد العالمية إن تغيرات فى درجات الحرارة والارتفاع الكبير فيها يؤثر بقوة على هطول الأمطار وسرعة التبخر وهو ما يعرضنا لأزمة لا يعرف أحد كيف سيواجهها العالم.

Thirsty Middle East faces worsening water stress

Nearly half of 33 countries expected to face extremely high water stress by 2040 are in the Middle East, where surface water is limited and demand is high, said experts who ranked 167 nations.

Thirteen Middle Eastern countries plus the Palestinian Territories are projected to face extremely high water stress in 25 years' time, and eight fell in the global Top 10: Bahrain, Kuwait, the Palestinian Territories, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman.

Researchers from the World Resources Institute (WRI) - who compiled the first index measuring competition for and depletion of surface water, such as lakes and rivers, each decade from 2010 to 2040 - said the Middle East is already probably the least water-secure region in the world. It draws heavily on groundwater and desalinated sea water, and faces "exceptional water-related challenges for the foreseeable future", they wrote in their findings.

Betsy Otto, director of the WRI's Global Water Programme, said it was important for governments to understand the potential risks they face in terms of the water needed to run their economies, including rising demand as populations grow and the still uncertain impacts of climate change.

"The good news ... is countries can take actions to reduce that stress and the risk associated with how they manage water resources," Otto told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, citing Singapore as an example of a state that uses innovative methods.

One measure likely to become more common in the Middle East and elsewhere is water reuse systems that recycle waste water.

"It doesn't make a lot of sense to treat water to a potable standard, allow it to be used by households and then essentially throw it away," Otto said.

Some Middle Eastern countries already rely on desalination, a technique to remove salt from sea and ground water. These and other highly water-stressed nations may also need to move away from producing their own food because agriculture gobbles water, Otto noted.

Saudi Arabia, for example, has said its people will depend entirely on grain imports by 2016, the WRI researchers said.

While political turmoil may be the top concern in the Middle East today, drought and water shortages in Syria likely contributed to the social unrest that stoked its civil war, the WRI experts said, as some 1.5 million people - mainly farmers and herders - moved to urban areas unable to provide enough jobs and services.

Water has also played a significant role in the decades-old conflict between the Palestinian Territories and Israel, they noted.

"It's unlikely that water becomes the cause of the conflict, but it can become an accelerator or multiplier of those conflicts," Otto said.

The analysis singled out four countries whose level of water stress is due to rise particularly sharply between 2010 and 2040 - Chile, Estonia, Namibia and Botswana - putting new pressure on their businesses, farms and communities.

It also warned that national-level rankings mask large differences within countries. The United States, for example, is ranked 49 for 2010 and 47 for 2040, but California is currently grappling with a crippling drought.

That smoothing effect could help explain why some West African and Central American countries that regularly suffer drought-related food crises in rural areas have a low water-stress ranking.

Otto said some of those countries may also see their future water supply from precipitation increase due to climate change, and that agriculture may be rain-fed rather than relying on irrigation, avoiding direct demand on surface waters.

In southern Africa and other parts of the world where water supply is projected to fall as demand grows, policy makers should act to prevent water stress worsening, Otto said.

"We need to understand the relationship between available supply and demand for that water, and we need to take steps to use the water we have more efficiently and more effectively," she said.

New Report on How to Solve the Middle East's Water Scarcity

As the U.S. considers water scarcity as serious a threat as terrorism and cyberattacks, the Middle East is not immune to this growing water scarcity, due to its harsh climate, poor water management and lack of sharing of information among the regional countries. Fanack Water Files, Water Challenges and Solutions in Jordan is a new report addressing this problem and solutions.

While the Middle East is on fire, waging wars, experiencing civil unrest and suffering from terrorist attacks, it also faces another silent threat: the scarcity of water. According to the U.N., over 3 billion people around the world face water scarcity and this will be one of the critical problems of the Twenty-first century. Water scarcity causes not only humanitarian or environmental problems, but could result in conflicts between nations. A recent National Intelligence Strategy stated that the U.S. considers water scarcity as serious a threat as weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and cyberattacks. The Middle East is not immune to this growing water scarcity, due to its harsh climate and desertification, poor water management and lack of sharing of information among the regional countries.

Fanack, a Netherlands-based organization, providing analysis of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has made the state of water in the MENA region one of its focal points. Its goal is to aid in the sharing of detailed and reliable information by releasing a series of Fanack Water Files providing in-depth, comprehensive, and balanced information on the state of water resources in the MENA region. Fanack Water Files will cover a range of topics, including water availability and use, pollution and groundwater overexploitation, and alternative sources of water such as seawater desalination.

New York-based publisher, Cosimo is proud to present Fanack's first publication in this series of Fanack Water Files, Water Challenges and Solutions in Jordan with a Special Report on the Red Sea-Dead See project. This publication deals in-depth with the water situation in Jordan, a country of strategic importance to the region due to its location in the Syrian desert and bordering Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Israel.

Jordan's growing water scarcity is caused by increased demand due to rapid population growth and overexploration of water resources in recent decades. The limited water supply is one of the main obstacles to Jordan's development. This first report addresses possible solutions, such as rainwater harvesting, treated waste water, seawater desalination in the Red Sea and water transfers between the Red Sea and Dead Sea.

In times of global upheaval, growing world population, and increasing evidence of climate change, this report will enlighten policy-makers planning their next policies, business people looking for opportunities and academics looking for concise information on the state of water in Jordan. In essence, it is a report of importance to all stakeholders in a more peaceful and prosperous future for this region and the world.

Thousands die in Yemen in fights over water

Clashes over water are killing up to 4,000 people a year in Yemen, its government says. These conflicts, which predate the country’s civil war, include raids on wells and other fights over water access involving armed groups, according to Yemen’s interior ministry.

This compares with more than 2,500 deaths so far in the civil war that began in March and involves an alliance led by Saudi Arabia fighting supporters of Ali Abdullah Saleh, a former president who was ousted in 2012.

According to a regional representative of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the civil war has left around 20 million Yemenis without access to drinking water.

“With the current conflict, the number of people that don’t have access to clean water is believed to be more than 80 per cent of the population,” says Abdessalam Ould Ahmed, who represents the FAO’s Near East and North Africa region.

Yemen has the highest water scarcity in the world, he says, with more than half the population lacking a regular supply of drinking water even before the fighting began.

Even in the capital, Sana’a, only 40 per cent of homes are connected to the water system, according to the Wilson Center, a US think-tank focusing on global challenges.

In 2009, a FAO report forecast that Yemen could be the first county to lose its ground water resources completely. Groundwater levels are falling by around two metres a year in some regions, it said. With the conflict raging, the situation is close to “complete collapse”, warns Fawzi Karajeh, senior water resources and irrigation officer at the FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa in Egypt.

“The conflict in Yemen is exacerbating water scarcity by reducing access to safe drinking water,” he tells SciDev.Net. “If urgent action is not taken, the country will fall into further humanitarian crisis.”

On average, 115 cubic metres of water a year are available for every person in Yemen — just eight per cent of the world average. “If the conflict continues, it is expected that this will decline to 55 cubic metres per person per year in 2031,” says Karajeh.

Karajeh’s fears were confirmed by Omar Hayani, an environmental journalist based in Sana’a. “In the area where I live, and some nearby places, the water crisis has reached a very dangerous level,” he says. “People are sometimes queuing for more than 24 hours to get a share of water.”

Hayani describes how people use stagnant water from dams for drinking and cooking. He says the crisis is even bigger in Aden, where wells are the only source of water. Since pumps are mostly out of action due to the breakdown of the power grid and fuel shortages, water access becomes difficult as groundwater levels are so low due to previous depletion.

The FAO has called for immediate UN action to provide farmers with solar-powered water pumps, especially in the worst-affected areas where groundwater is more than 150 metres below ground. Salah Hajj Hassan, an FAO representative in Yemen, says the organisation is working with the UN to install solar pumps in seven provinces in the country.

But Karajeh fears that the growing number of pumps could lower water levels by six to seven metres a year, after which groundwater resources would be beyond recovery.

“Serious water management measures have to be implemented immediately in cooperative spirit with all the stakeholders, including the regional factions and international organisations,” he says.

Near East and North Africa’s Water Scarcity Initiative

LAS, ICARDA and FAO discuss successes of the "Near East and North Africa's Water Scarcity Initiative" at its 39th Conference.

The escalation of water scarcity is one of the most impelling challenges facing Arab countries. Fast paced population growth, climate change, changing consumption patterns are all factors that are adding pressure to the already limited resources across the region.

Acknowledging the urgency and scale of the water issues faced by the Arab countries, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) launched in 2013, a Regional Initiative on Water Scarcity. The main objective of the Initiative is to promote cooperation among NENA countries to identify and streamline policies, governance and best practices that can significantly and sustainably improve agricultural water productivity in a context of severe intensification of water scarcity and negative impact of climatic changes.

To look at the regional efforts that have contributed to the sustainable use and management of water in the Region, on 9 June 2015, FAO organized a side event on “Near East and North Africa’s Water Scarcity Initiative” at FAO Conference, 39th Session, which is convened in Rome from 6-13 June 2015.

Representatives from Egypt, the League of Arab States, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) and FAO discussed successes from the regional initiative.

Chaired by FAO’s Assistant- Director General and Regional Representative for the Near East and North Africa, Mr. Abdessalam, the side event will showcase FAO's achievements and provide evidence on how the Organization has brought about changes and impact in the countries of the region.

UAE, UN discuss regional water resources

Officials of the UAE Ministry of Environment and Water have met with representatives of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, FAO, to discuss the organisation’s initiative for sustainable management of water resources in the region.

During the meeting, Mariam Saeed Hareb, Assistant Undersecretary for Water Resources and Nature Conservation at the UAE ministry, and Pasquale Steduto, Deputy Regional Representative at the FAO Regional Office for Near East and North Africa, along with a group of experts discussed the current situation of water resources in the UAE, as well as a report on water laws in the country.

The “Regional Initiative on Water Scarcity in the Near East”, launched by FAO in 2013 to provide preliminary regional review and gap analysis of the region’s water resources, seeks to support member countries in identifying and streamlining policies and best practices in agriculture water management, and beyond.

The initiative distinguishes between “supply-side” options, aiming at increasing the volumes of water available for food production, and “demand-side” options that focus on efficient use of water for food production.

Sustainable water resources management and enhancing the strategic water reserves are among the priorities of the UAE Vision 2021.

USAID grants $880,000 for 44 water projects in Irbid

USAID has awarded $880,000 (around JD623,400) to 28 charitable and cooperative societies in Irbid for the installation of 44 rainwater-harvesting cisterns and other community-based water projects in northern Jordan.

In a statement released Sunday, the US agency said “these efforts build on the recent installation of rainwater-harvesting cisterns in 221 locations in north Jordan, as well as the rehabilitation of the Jaber Pump Station in support of Yarmouk Water Company.”

The station, unveiled in a ceremony late last week, will provide 195 cubic metres of freshwater per hour for 58,000 residents in Irbid Governorate, 80km north of Amman, and bring total USAID contributions to community-based water projects in the northern governorates to $1.4 million.

“USAID remains committed to working with communities and local organisations to alleviate water scarcity and meet ever-increasing demand,” the statement quoted USAID Mission Director Beth Paige as saying.

“The grants awarded today will allow communities to take a leading role in responding to their water needs,” Paige added at the grant ceremony, also held late last week.

These activities fall under the Community-Based Initiatives for Water Demand Management Project, funded by USAID and implemented by Mercy Corps.

This partnership has been building the capacity of community-based organisations since 2006 to address water scarcity and raise the efficiency of water usage in rural areas, according to the statement.